Office Hours with Karpf and Loge – Strategic political communication hot takes with footnotes.
Dave Karpf, PhD and Peter Loge look at communication campaigns in the news, explain what’s working and what’s not, and how to make it all better.
Professors Karpf and Loge teach strategic communication in the School of Media and Public Affairs at The George Washington University. Karpf is the author of several books on digital politics and once sort of accidentally made Bret Stephens cry. Loge has spent 30 years working in politics and strategic communication and is unreasonably proud of getting a 10/10 on RoomRater.
Dave Karpf is on Twitter at @davekarpf and check out his Substack The Future, Now and Then. Peter Loge is on Twitter at @ploge and you’re already on his webpage.
Office Hours with Karpf and Loge — The Footnotes
The podcast has the analysis, here are the links.
Season IV Episode IV
ChatGPT, strategic limits of word choice, and a bunch of random stuff
ChatGPT for strategic communication, language choice involves strategic and ethical choices, plus ranting about CPAC, doomsaying is bad, comedy is good, Jurassic moths and invisible asteroids.
The Moral Case Against Equity Language — George Packer, The Atlantic
Dave Karpf on Packer’s piece — The Future, Now and Then
Event on ChatGPT, ethics and political campaigns with a list of readings — Project on Ethics in Political Communication
Jurassic Era moth found at Arkansas Walmart — The New York Times
Why are young liberals so depressed? — Matt Yglesias
The Revolution Will Be Hilarious — Caty Borum
Wanksy — Bloomberg
Podcast Companies, Once Walking on Air, Feel the Strain of Gravity: “The dumb money era is over” as layoffs, budget cuts and scuttled deals challenge a long-booming industry. — New York Times
Why Is Affirmative Action in Peril? One Man’s Decision. — New York Times
Invisible Asteroids — The Daily Mail
Season IV Episode III
Aliens, Nikki Haley, the State of the Union, and Elon Musk doing Elon Musk things
Nikki Haley is running for President, the State of the Union is a strategic comms circus, Elon Musk is doing Elon Musk things, and if they’re actually space aliens and not spy balloons the timing is super inconvenient.
Public opinion of Biden before and after the State of the Union Address — Morning Consult
Republicans leery of compromise with Biden — Pew Research
Nikki Haley running for President — The New York Times
“Republicans have lost the popular vote in seven out of the last eight presidential elections,” she said. “That has to change.”
Spy balloons are not space aliens — CNN
“I know there have been questions and concerns about this, but there is no — again no — indication of aliens (or) extraterrestrial activity,” said Karine Jean-Pierre, White House press secretary, during a Monday briefing.
Ancient penguins the size of gorillas — The New York Times
researchers estimate that the “monster bird” weighed a whopping 340 pounds — 15 pounds heavier than Lane Johnson, the right tackle anchoring the Philadelphia Eagles offensive line in the Super Bowl.
Elon Musk remains Elon Musk – The Guardian
Elon Musk reportedly forced Twitter algorithm to boost his tweets after Super Bowl flop
Season IV Episode II
Trump, Protests, Reading FC and a touch of the ‘Rona.
Challenging Trump: Coordination Game
One Republican Presidential Primary scenario is that Trump has the support of the minority of Republican primary voters, but the rest of the voters are scattered across a dozen candidates. Beating Trump in the primaries in 2024 might require Republicans doing what they failed to do in 2016: Agree on who should drop out and who should remain to prevent Trump from getting the nomination. One way to look at this scenario is as a “coordination game” from game theory. Complicating the game is that it is N player, rather than two player, and it’s iterative rather than single-shot (there are multiple primaries, albeit with different stakes, making it even more complicated).
Social Media
The Institute for Data, Democracy and Politics in the School of Media and Public Affairs at the George Washington University
On Digital Disinformation and Democratic Myths — Dave Karpf
George Orwell’s collection of political pamphlets in the British Library
Orwell on pamphlets, from Ideological Origins of the American Revolution (Bernard Bailyn):
Protest Rhetoric
The Rhetoric of Agitation and Control – John W. Bowers and Donovan J. Ochs 1971, updated in 2010 with Richard J. Jensen and David P. Schulz
Elite rhetoric can undermine democratic norms
Ethan Porter et al
Reading FC and climate awareness
The University of Reading
BBC
The Specials
Ghost Town
Season IV Episode I
How Central Ohio Got People to Eat Their Leftovers — The New York Times
The most important 2016 “misinformation” came from the regular news media: The sour legacy of a weird panic — Matthew Yglesias, Slow Boring
Digital Ads in Presidential Campaigns Don’t Really Matter — Minali Aggarwal et al, Nature Human Behavior, Jan. 2023
The political impact of scandals:
Political Scandal: A Theory — Wioletta Dziuda, William G. Howell, American Journal of Political Science, Nov. 2020
Voters’ Partisan Responses to Politicians’ Immoral Behavior —Annemarie S. Walter, David P. Redlawsk, Political Psychology, March 2019
The impact of political scandals on political support: An experimental test of two theories — Jürgen Maier, International Political Science Review, Nov. 2010
Public opinion on government shutdowns:
The trillion-dollar coin scheme, explained by the guy who invented it — Dylan Matthews, Vox
Historically — Pew
Impact on faith in the economy — New York Times
The Nays Have it: How Rampant Blame Generating Distorts American Policy and Politics — R. Kent Weaver, Political Science Quarterly, Summer 2018
Season III Episode V
Twitter-you-kidding-me?
A Social Media Status Update — The New York Times
Karpf’s future reminiscing about Twitter, on Twitter
Strategic Comms and the World Cup on Qatar
Soccer journalists should cover human rights — Grant Wahl
FIFA should spend as much helping the migrant workers who built the stadiums as it does rewarding the teams that play in them — Amnesty International
Qatar accused of restricting journalists, then changing their minds after a Guardian story — The Guardian
Sportswashing: Complicity and Corruption — Sport, Ethics and Philosophy
Much more to come on this topic, including a special event with Grant Wahl, Prof. Neha Vora and Prof. Silvio Waisbord.
Case Study: State lotteries — The New Yorker
Season Three, Episode Four
(Episode three is here, not a lot to footnote so I basically blew it off)
Biden’s good October, midterms, disaster politics, and praise for Nyquil
Karpf gloats about being right about Biden and marijuana, messaging and the midterm elections, and what DeSantis got right about disaster politics and why that’s bad for democracy. Plus challenges to the space time continuum and we pitch Nyquil to sponsor us.
Biden’s marijuana policy
The President’s statement
National Public Radio
Which Ads Work
Slide deck
Tweet
Politics of Disaster
Prof. Richard Olson “Towards a Politics of Disaster“
Grant Wahl on the men’s World Cup in Qatar
Substack. Sign up.
The Universe Might Be a Hologram
The New York Times
Season Three, Episode Two
Biden defends democracy, CNN flails, Schedule F is bad, and Karpf might watch a show about soccer
The timing of Biden’s address on democracy, CNN needs to stop chasing shiny objects and start defending democracy, and the comms challenge of protecting the civil service from political patronage. Plus Loge gets Karpf to agree to watch a show about soccer.
Biden’s speech defending democracy
Speech transcript
Not adding any more notes because the commentary is just speculation – no data to report.
CNN
Jay Rosen on the mess that is CNN.
Poynter on Harwood’s departure and CNN’s attempt to both-sides democracy.
Schedule F is terrible
Lawfare explainer.
Government Executive on Senate attempts to block it.
US Rep. Connolly on House attempts to block it.
The Partnership for Public Service on Schedule F.
Welcome to Wrexham
The Athletic on streaming services, a social media campaign, and soccer.
Fact checking works but may not matter
New study from Ethan Porter and his colleagues in Public Opinion Quarterly.
Season Three, Episode One: Once more into the abyss.
Dark Brandon, student loans and the mid-terms.
Karpf and Loge discuss comms lessons from the student loan relief win and ideas for how Democrats should message student loans and the 2022 mid-term elections. Loge has ideas for sayings that should be on coffee mugs and Karpf continues to mock Elon Musk.
How forgiving student debt happened
The Washington Post
First person account
Policy Entrepreneurship
So You Want to Be a Policy Entrepreneur?
Policy Entrepreneurs and Dynamic Change
Kony 2012 – Ten years later (The New York Times)
Musk trying to subpoena Twitter (The New York Times)
Biden talking about threats to democracy on Thursday (The Philadelphia Inquirer)
Finland’s partying PM (The Hill)
People are not descended from single orifice creatures. Seems like good news for people. (The Guardian)
Season Two, Episode Six, the season finale: The Inflation Reduction Act and Mar a What a Mess
Comms lessons from the Inflation Reduction Act and what activists should do next, and the hot mess and comms challenges of the Trump investigation(s). Plus Loge worries about five foot bats and warns about Donald Trump shaped MDMA and Dave Karpf is troublingly hopeful.
Clean Energy and Politics
Volts Podcast and on Twitter
Comms Lessons from the Mar a Lago search search
Matt Yglesias on Twitter: Democrats need to tie the corruption and threats to democracy to tangible policy (i.e. “They’re covering for Trump because they hate the rule of law, same reason they voted en masse to protect tax cheats.”)
Clinton and Trump fundraising off the search from the National Review.
Comms lesson — absent information people fill the void with whatever explanation they like best from Loge in The Hill (plus I compare cable pundits to toddlers on long car rides).
Five Foot Tall Bats in Singapore via Twitter, so it must be true.
Trump shaped ecstasy (The Guardian)
Gina Lollabrigida running for Italian parliament (The Guardian)
Season Two, Episode Five: Karpf praises Sen. Manchin and is troublingly optimistic, why the Forward party is a dumb idea, the Republican fundraising platform WinRed continues to be terrible and what comms professionals can learn from all of it. Plus Karpf wears a meta Mountain Goats t-shirt, Loge praises the English women’s national soccer team and warns about holes ocean floor.
WinRed versus Google (the Washington Post)
The Campaign Legal Center on WinRed
Trump and other Republicans had to return $135+ in scammed online donations (Shane Goldmacher in the New York Times — follow Shane on Twitter and read his work in the NYT).
Popular online fundraising and campaign tactics can hurt Democrats (Lara Putnam and Micah Sifry in the New York Times)
Republican O.G. Karl Rove on Trump’s email fundraising scam (Wall Street Journal)
Trump’s email fundraising is hurting Republicans (Washington Examiner and the New York Times)
Andrew Yang and Tinkerbell Politics (Dave Karpf on Substack)
The Forward party is ridiculous (Jamelle Bouie the New York Times)
England won the women’s Euros (BBC). A great team and a great tournament. The sport will never be the same.
Holes on the ocean floor (New York Times). Sea monsters? Or was Waterworld a terrible movie but a great documentary (or both)?
Season Two, Episode Four: Kavanaugh steak-out and gluing yourself to paintings — then what? Plus crisis comms for shark attacks and Uber, and Loge tries to explain The Rockford Files to Karpf.
What is the strategic communications value of attention-getting stunts? How can communications professionals build on actions like disrupting Supreme Court Justices eating dinner and activists gluing themselves to paintings? Plus Karpf still has opinions about Elon Musk and Loge is aghast Karpf has never seen the Rockford Files. You can check out all of the episodes on YouTube and your favorite podcast platform.
Links to support for Karpf and Loge’s arguments (and links to other miscellany) are below.
Protesters gluing themselves to paintings in the U.K., via The New York Times
The State of Congress from the Partnership on Public Service
“The incentive structure for collaboration is lower than at any point in my career.” — Legislative Director, Senate personal office
The Politics of Attention by Bryan Jones and Frank Baumgartner
Crisis comms lessons from responding to shark attacks, via PR News
The Rockford Files and the James Garner estate auction.
This is Jim, leave a message at the tone.
Season Two – Episode Three: The Supreme Court, democracy is a plate of Jell-O melting in the Arizona Sun, and robot fish with lasers.
Karpf and Loge continued the second season of the podcast talking about recent US Supreme Court rulings on abortion, guns and federal regulations. Loge compared democracy to Jell-O melting in the hot Arizona sun and warned about robot fish with lasers. You can check out all of the episodes on YouTube and your favorite podcast platform.
Links to support for Karpf and Loge’s arguments (and links to other miscellany) are below.
US Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) remarks at the Reagan Library.
“But the reality that we face today, as Republicans, as we think about the choice in front of us, we have to choose. Because Republicans cannot both be loyal to Donald Trump and loyal to the constitution.”
List of Democrats (and how to donate to them) running against seditionists and election deniers. The bigger the number in red in column H, the more likely a Republican will win. The bigger the number in blue, the more likely a Democrat will win (technically smaller because they’re negative numbers). We have not vetted this list, just passing it along.
What to do after Dobbs:
Spitfire Strategies has terrific post-Dobbs advice here, and more ideas here.
“Most important of all, in the middle of the terrible, traumatic events happening, keep providing hope. Hope leads to action.”
What Now, What Next, What Then? A piece I put on Medium when the decision was leaked (fans of the pod will recognize this from Season One, Episode Five footnotes where we offer additional resources and ideas).
States and localities acting climate, via the New York Times.
Bo sticks lessons for beginners (Karpf’s advice for surviving the coming dystopia).
Self-repairing robot fish with lasers from The Guardian.
Season Two, Episode Two:
What are words for?
Karpf and Loge continued the second season of the podcast sticking with guns and the Jan 6 Commission, and add the death of the administrative state to the mix. You can check out all of the episodes on YouTube and your favorite podcast platform.
Links to support for Karpf and Loge’s arguments (and links to other miscellany) are below.
“Do you hear me/do you care” Missing Persons, Words
Guns
Should Hollywood model gun safety? (The Hill)
Gun violence and public health on NPR and the American Public Health Association
Metaphors and crime — Metaphors We Think With: The Role of Metaphor in Reasoning
The January 6th Commission
Voters think the Jan. 6th Commission is fair and a majority think Trump is culpable. But views are partisan, and no one is changing their mind —
Morning Consult/Politico poll
ABC News/Ipsos poll
A lot of people are paying attention, or not. (The Guardian)
Both Trump and the Democrats are fundraising off the hearing (Bloomberg)
Democratic digital consultant Mike Nellis on why the hearings aren’t great for Dem fundraising
Not Jan. 6
The death of the administrative state, and possibly the planet (New York Times)
Kate Bush Running Up That Hill
Karpf being smart in the New York Times
Karpf being smart on someone else’s podcast
Season Two, Episode One:
Can comms solve guns?
or, Is that a gun in your pocket or are you just happy to see me? Oh, it’s a gun.
Karpf and Loge launch the second season of Office Hours with a discussion about the gun debate in America, Elon Musk, Congressional January 6th hearings, and Paris Hilton’s desire to be the Queen of the Metaverse.
Check it out on YouTube and your favorite podcast platform.
Links to support for Karpf and Loge’s arguments (and links to other miscellany) are below.
Guns
A mass shootings database.
Karpf’s Substack piece on the gun debate.
Loge’s Medium piece on the gun debate.
The N.R.A.s Lobbyist Behind Florida’s Pro-Gun Policies from The New Yorker.
Polling can be misleading and a critique of that position.
A Republican Congressman in New York who supported assault weapon ban is being chased out of Congress (NYT).
A thoughtful “yes/and” take by Isaac Saul.
Not Guns
The White House is paying interns — this is a big deal.
DeSantis vs the Special Olympics. Having successfully raised taxes on Florida homeowners by beating a pretend mouse, the Florida governor bravely put kids’ health at risk by tackling the Special Olympics.
Christian Pulisic on US fans and here ($80 tickets didn’t help). His comments pale in comparison to French officials and UEFA after the Champions League final.
The House January 6 Commission hearings are starting(Just Security).
Paris Hilton wants to be the queen of the metaverse.
Episode Six:
Karpf and Loge wrap up the the first season of Office Hours, look at Facebook’s textbook DC advocacy, and Dave wonders if democracy will die in Pennsylvania.
Check it out on YouTube and your favorite podcast platform.
Footnotes – Links to some what we referenced in the podcast, and to other readings listeners might find interesting.
New York Times remembrance of Donald Ross, public interest advocate and co-founder of M+R Strategic Services.
More Common Sense, Less Ideology: Modern Communications Lessons from the Critical Race Theory Debates – Nat Kendall-Taylor, CEO of Frameworks, on smart messaging.
Alvaro Bedoya confirmed at the Federal Trade Commission.
Facebook as a case study in strategic communication and policy advocacy, via The Washington Post.
An insurrectionist could be the next governor of Pennsylvania, from The New Yorker:
Earlier this week, Doug Mastriano, a Pennsylvania state senator who used campaign funds to send six charter buses to the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, won the G.O.P. primary for governor…
One way the right is framing student loan forgiveness:
Episode Five:
Karpf and Loge talk about responding to the Supreme Court probably overturning Roe v. Wade and America’s political trailer park of doom. Plus Loge urges journalists to ignore the squirrels, and Karpf mocks Loge for still having an AOL account.
Check it out on YouTube and your favorite podcast platform
Footnotes – Links to some of what we referenced in the podcast, and to other readings our listeners might find interesting.
Abortion
Liberate Abortion has links to ways to promote and protect women’s rights locally and nationally.
The Stanford Social Innovation Review has a terrific piece worth checking out – How Should the Social Sector Respond to an Abortion Upheaval?
Decoding Abortion Rhetoric by Celeste Condit is an important scholarly work on abortion politics. Her work is worth checking out in general.
Advice for advocates
Give people specific ways to help, and ask what now, what next, what then. On Medium (because Karpf shamed me about my own blog).
Protest
The Myth of the Silent Majority – Americans have learned the wrong lessons about the political consequences of protest by Daniel Q. Gillian. His book The Loud Minority: Why Protests Matter in American Democracy is also terrific.
Why Civil Resistance Works: The strategic logic of non-violent protest by Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan makes a compelling case for the power of non-violent protest. A shorter version from International Security is here.
Minority Rule
Republicans represent a minority of Americans
The Republican candidate for President has received a majority of votes only once since 1988 (Bush in 2004, 50.7%)
Bailing Out
For those tired of living in America’s political trailer park of doom, here are homes for sale along Italy’s Amalfi Coast. The politics might be terrible, but the views are lovely and the wine is very good.
The grift that keeps on grifting
One way Republicans are raising money off overturning Roe is below (click below to see full sized). Message: Overturning Roe threatens the right to life, click to sign the petition. The petition is a request for money that turns into an automatic recurring donation, you have to opt out of automatically giving money every month rather than opting in.
Episode Four:
Karpf and Loge talk about Earth Day and the challenges of climate messaging, and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis jacking up property taxes so he can get on TV by picking a fight with a pretend mouse. Plus Karpf thinks more politicians will try to score points by attacking children and that Democrats should play offense in the “culture wars,” and Loge talks FCC and FTC confirmation votes while working in several gratuitous references to a Joy Division – Teletubbies video. Links supporting their hot takes (plus some bonus links!) are below.
Watch on YouTube and listen on your favorite podcast platform
A Joy Division – Teletubbies video
Earth Day
Earth day events may shape views of climate and the environment
There are lot of “National Days”
Bonus Earth Day links
Climate Denialism is the Worst. Doomism Isn’t the Alternative
Americans are more divided – and care less – about climate than people in other countries are
Yale Climate project on climate communication
Florida
Opponents are framing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ attacks on Disney as a tax hike
And More!
The Senate confirmations of Alvaro Bedoya to the FTC and Gigi Sohn to the FCC are in trouble.
Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow plays offense in the “culture wars”
Episode Three:
How should the Democrats talk about inflation and the economy? Does it even matter? Plus Karpf talks about the history of the digital future and Loge warns about 66 million year old spores from space that will kill us all. Watch on YouTube and listen on your favorite podcast platform.
Footnotes – Some of the sources we referenced in the discussion
Leonard Cohen – You Want it Darker
The Music Man – Right Here in River City
Can Three New Words Save the Democrats from Disaster? (spoiler: no)
Cook Political Report – 2022 House Overview: Still a GOP Advantage, but Redistricting Looks Like a Wash
FiveThirtyEight – Why The President’s Party Almost Always Has A Bad Midterm
Vox – The presidential penalty
John Hibbing and Elizabeth Theiss-Morse – Stealth Democracy
Daniel Kahneman – Thinking Fast and Slow
The New York Times – Shards of Asteroid That Killed the Dinosaurs May Have Been Found in Fossil Site
Episode Two:
The communications around the Supreme Court confirmation hearings for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson, Karpf both warns about the “shadow docket” and makes a play for a mattress sponsor, and Loge mourns the passing of the inventor of the GIF and the person who brought the TRS-80 to market. Watch on YouTube and listen of your favorite podcast platform.
Footnotes – Some of the sources we referenced in the discussion.
The Pew Research Center on public opinion of the Supreme Court
Professor Rachel Shelden in the Washington Post – “The Supreme Court used to be openly political“
Ilya Shapiro for the Cato Institute – “Just Accept It: The Supreme Court Has Always Been Political “
Robert Dahl “The Concept of Power“
Paul Waldman and Greg Sargent in the Washington Post – “The Supreme Court isn’t bothering to hide its designs on our democracy” (discusses the “shadow docket”)
SCOTUS Blog forum on “the shadow docket“
Remembering Stephen Wilhite, inventor of the GIF, and John Roach who brought the TRS-80 to market.
Predictions:
Dave and Peter: The US Senate will confirm Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson as the first Black woman to the US Supreme Court.
Dave: The story over the next two weeks will be the economy.
Peter: The US men’s national team will qualify for the World Cup.
Episode One:
What Ukraine means for advocates of other issues, the mask is the message, and whatever occurs to us next. Watch it here and listen here.
Footnotes – Some of the sources we referenced in the discussion.
New Yorker review of Philip Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? “Human beings who spend their lives studying the state of the world, in other words, are poorer forecasters than dart-throwing monkeys…”
Airbnb offering free short term housing, and people paying for Airbnbs they won’t use
The Black Box Society: The Secret Algorithms That Control Money and Information by Frank Pasquale
“Snazzy solidarity: is celebrity and fashion support for Ukraine crass?” The Guardian
Stealth Democracy by John R. Hibbing and Elizabeth Theiss-Morse
Counties that went for Trump in 2016 had lower levels of mask wearing – National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI)
The shifting politics of mask mandates – The Washington Post
Axios-Ipsos poll: Media habits defined the COVID culture war, Axios – “By the end of last month, just 16% of those who said they get most of their news from Fox or other conservative outlets still said they trust the CDC, compared to 77% of those who favor network news and major national newspapers and 87% of those who primarily watch CNN or MSNBC.”
Predictions
In two weeks there will be a new phase in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine